How will carbon black operate in the second half of the year

一、Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic carbon black market showed a sharp decline in the first half of 2023 and then rebounded. On January 1, the price of carbon black was 12,050 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price was 9,033 yuan/ton, of which the highest price was 12,050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price was 7,900 yuan/ton in May.

二、Industrial chain

 The main consumption proportion of carbon black downstream market is carbon black for tires, carbon black for rubber, plastic, etc., accounting for 66.7%, 22.2%, 6.3%, respectively.

In the first half of this year, the downstream tire enterprises and other rubber products industry, the overall operating rate remained stable, there is a reasonable level of finished products warehouse, enterprises take goods enthusiasm in general, rubber products, plastic master batch industry performance is flat, mainly to buy just need, June for the downstream tire traditional sales off-season, the demand side further weakened, the field more wait-and-see attitude, the bearish atmosphere gradually deepened, Carbon black market trading light. Mainstream tire manufacturers have strong feelings about carbon black suppression, the industry is low in enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the market has no obvious good news.

三、Capacity output

According to incomplete statistics, the total production capacity of China’s carbon black market in 2023 is about 9.5 million tons, an increase of 990,000 tons compared with last year, and the overall production capacity has increased slightly, of which East China and North China have the largest proportion of carbon black production capacity.

四、Changes in imports and exports

Imports

According to customs data, China’s total carbon black imports increased significantly from January to May in 2023, with the most obvious increase in May. China’s cumulative carbon black imports amounted to 107,000 tons, an increase of 65,600 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 158.8%.

In the first half of 2023, China’s total carbon black imports increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and both year-on-year and month-on-month increases were mainly due to the consideration of carbon black produced by high-priced raw materials in the early stage, which led to the domestic carbon black prices still running at a high level throughout the month, the acceptance of high carbon black prices by terminal enterprises was limited, and the resistance of some downstream factories to high carbon black prices was high. Therefore, some imported carbon black is selected to replace domestic carbon black, driving the increase of carbon black imports.

Exports

According to customs data, China’s total carbon black exports decreased slightly from January to May 2023. China’s cumulative carbon black exports totaled 255,200 tons, 76,500 tons less than the same period last year, a 23% decrease.

Compared with imports, China’s carbon black exports decreased year-on-year and increased slightly month-on-month, but the overall export volume was low.

Future market forecast

In the short term, raw coal tar or high level is temporarily stable, and downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises are slightly weak in receiving high-price coal tar, and their enthusiasm for taking goods will be weakened. Tire enterprises traditional sales off-season has not ended, the downstream tire sales pressure is not reduced.

There are many negative factors in the carbon black market at present, and the price of the carbon black market in the second half of 2023 May show a trend of weak shocks in the interval.